Miscellany
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The SNP’s New Groove
25th August 2020
It would seem that Nicola Sturgeon, First Minister for Scotland and leader of the Scottish National Party, is pushing for another referendum on Scottish secession and independence from the United Kingdom.
A previous referendum on this subject, in 2014, resulted in 55.3% of voter turnout voting against secession. Which some might consider something of a close call.
Now in 2020, during a global pandemic and a potentially catastrophic recession, the Scottish First Minister is now suggesting that the same referendum process be attempted. Perhaps in the hopes that a different result might be achieved. Presumably, should a second referendum result in another vote of “Nay”, the process would be repeated at random intervals in the future, until such a time as the SNP achieves the result it wants. Which could, eventually, be considered tiresome by the Scottish electorate.
It could be argued that First Minister Sturgeon has missed a trick.
Scottish secession from the Union does not affect Scotland alone.
Scottish independence would have a measurable impact on the United Kingdom as a whole. Therefore, any referendum on Scotland’s secession should be expanded, to include all UK member states. England, Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland.
Scotland can vote on whether or not they wish to leave the union or remain, and the other members can vote on whether or not they wish to keep Scotland, or wave bye-bye.
Northern Ireland, Wales, and the Duchy of Cornwall have often voiced their wish that the English, who are apparently “the worst”, would just go away and leave them alone. These members of the United Kingdom and Commonwealth of Nations might have a vested interest in seeing Scotland gain independence from the governance of the UK. Should Scotland prove successful it would certainly be a useful testing ground for examining the process of secession and how it affects the newly independent state and its people.
The UK is, when viewed through the lens of the corporate ethos, simply a Large Business Enterprise. With the various member states operating as “departments” of the corporate body.
The question that needs to be asked is, “does Scotland constitute a revenue stream?”
It could be observed that UK North Sea oil fields, currently 1.2% of UK Gross Domestic Product, are a Scottish concern. This however depends on whether division of the spoils is based on latitudinal proximity, or population percentage. From Scotland’s point of view, with a UK population percentage below 9%, they would prefer the proximity division of something like, 90% Scotland.
With Brent Crude prices currently around $46 a barrel, and with maybe as much as 20 billion barrels of oil and gas estimated still to be pumped out of the Norwegian Continental Shelf, it should be remembered that this potential revenue stream is divided up between Norway, Denmark, Germany, The Netherlands, and the UK.
There is no guarantee that the UK’s share of the North Sea has enough resources left to make it commercially viable. With crude oil prices and the cost of extraction and transport, limiting the value of any potential income, the production overheads could outweigh the benefits of processing what is, in fact, a finite resource.
There are, of course, other factors to consider. Mitigation of carbon emissions, the phasing out of North Sea oil and gas extraction, and the restructuring of industrial employment needs to start now. Before climate change, turns into climate emergency.
Taking into account human activities, and their relationship to the issues of pollution and climate change, all developed countries, or at least the ones with any sense, are obliged to seek out alternatives to the combustion of fossil fuels. Sooner rather than later with any luck.
The further we progress along the road to climate change mitigation through use of fossil fuel alternatives, so gas and crude oil production should become less commercially desirable over time.
We can only hope that a newly independent Scotland would be at the forefront of an energy production revolution, that was not reliant upon the ravaging of already depleted natural resources.
Fossil fuels are not Scotland’s only potential revenue stream. Their export value in 2018 was a healthy £85 billion. With only £10 billion of that coming from fuel exports.
This leaves a handsome £75 billion export stream. Which includes services, textiles and manufacturing, and food and beverages.
Scotland’s primary export partner is the rest of the UK. With 60 percent of products distributed through this market. The remainder is divided more or less equally between international and European Union markets.
By 2018, the value of Scotland’s imports had reached £97 billion which does, unfortunately, leave them with something of a trade deficit. Not a major-league problem. It just requires a little adjustment.
In the event of a vote of independence in another referendum, Scotland would need to negotiate trade agreements with any new, international, export/import partners, and organise new shipping and transport logistics and insurances. But this shouldn’t prove too onerous a task.
Scotland’s workforce potential is a little above 2.7 million. With a current unemployment rate of 4.6%, the highest in the UK, this means around 127,000 are currently unemployed. Which the SNP should manage with aplomb.
Scotland’s public spending per head, at £11,247, is well above the UK average and second only to Northern Ireland. With a Scottish population of 5.4 million people this adds up to, a magnificent, £50 billion.
There are the occasional, “blips”. In 2019 Scotland suffered a £941 million shortfall in income tax revenue. Whilst £737 million has been added to Scotland’s block grant, this still leaves Scotland underfunded by £204 million during a period of pandemic related social, and economic, hullabaloo.
Scotland, who will lose the pound, could potentially ally with the EU, who would be delighted to have them, and gain the Euro for, maybe, as little as €145 per person per annum. Or roughly the equivalent of £720 million. Totally worth it.
After that, an independent, EU allied Scotland, with its energy production utilities and water supply, will be well placed to fleece those pesky English people to the point of their destitution. That’ll show them.
Outside of dividing up the record collection, cancelling any joint accounts, and deciding who gets custody of the dog, there are a plethora of treaties, protocols and pacts to consider.
The UK is currently signatory on over 14,000 bits of paper. Would an emancipated Scotland be bound to them, and covered by the umbrella of their protection? Or would they be free to negotiate new associations?
For instance, the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation, requires that its members spend a minimum of 2% of GDP on military defence. The United Kingdom, though reduced, would most likely remain the United Kingdom in name, Scotland would be its own nation and both parties would probably have to renegotiate their NATO membership. Assuming either of them could meet the membership requirement.
As a whole, including Scotland, the UK’s current GDP is approximately £2.21 trillion, or £32,541 per person, which means its obligated defence assets should be around £44 billion. Give or take.
Scotland’s GDP is estimated to be around £170 billion or £31,169 per person which means it may only need to spend around £3.4 billion on defence. Which shouldn’t be a problem. Easily done.
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It is mere conjecture to assume that Scotland would wish to remain part of NATO, and its nuclear weapons sharing policy, as the SNP may wish to find military partnership elsewhere. Or none at all.
There is the matter of the nuclear arsenal. The SNP has previously expressed their desire that any nuclear weaponry currently sited in Scotland should be removed in the event of Scotland achieving independence.
This would prove costly to the remainder of the UK, as new sites would need to be sought and constructed to house the arsenal, but Scotland would gain kudos points for full nuclear disarmament. The UK is signed up to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons or, NPT. Scotland could, post secession, choose whether or not to ratify the Non-Proliferation Treaty.
Whilst there are traditionalists who would bewail the break-up of the Union, it should be remembered that all such alliances are simply constructs of an idea, and ideas are mutable.
Human sacrifice was once “traditional” but, outside of a few primitives, we don’t do that anymore.
Slavish adherence to tradition is anathema to progress. Perhaps the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland has run its course as a tradition, and is now stagnant.
Sometimes, what a business really needs to do, is return to formula. Excise, or sell off, problem departments, streamline, and consolidate its position before rebranding.
Diversification of business interests is not without risk. A kind of procedural bloat can set in. The greater the expansion, the harder it becomes to control and maintain. The business becomes increasingly management centric. Information is broken down into smaller and smaller chunks before needing to be reconstituted. Imbalances can creep in, with some departments benefitting at the cost of others. Logistical processes flounder, and overheads increase.
Empires rise, and empires fall. Persian, Roman, Ottoman, French, Russian, British and others, have all ended up collapsing under the weight of the 7 stages of empire. Empires have, without fail, followed the pattern of previous empires.
Humanity did not get to where it is today by learning from its mistakes, thank you very much.
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Plenty of nations, whether by force, economic failure or, by simply being a pain in the backside, have seceded from their respective imperial overlords, with no apparent ill effects that can be ascertained, or are even worth mentioning.
Independent Scotland could go back to calling themselves “Alba”, re-join the EU, and revel in no longer being a constitutional monarchy, and instead become a newly minted republic. Unless they dig up a Stewart.
The governing SNP could adopt a nationalist, “Scotland for Scots” stance, and would have carte blanche to set up their own laws and governing processes. European Union approval permitting.
Should Alba seek EU membership, the current population of around 220,000 EU nationals would, no doubt, be entitled to stay. 130,000 Non-EU, non-UK, nationals would be subject to SNP whim. Post-Brexit UK nationals would be a different matter.
The Irish and Welsh population of Alba is statistically insignificant enough to be overlooked and be merely absorbed into the national whole. The half a million or so English nationals could be considered something of a pestilence, the English being what they are, and can be gently, and cheerfully, prodded into “no longer resident in Alba” status.
Any of the 750,000, or thereabouts, Scottish nationals currently south of Hadrian’s Wall should be permitted to apply for UK citizenship should they so wish. Or leave, it makes no real difference.
The SNP could then build a breeze block wall, 155 kilometres long and 5 metres high, along the border to keep out the riff-raff, and any contagions.
An independent and empowered Celtic nation could stand atop their new wall and look down their noses at the 62 million resentful and impoverished people gazing jealously up at Scottish supremacy.
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Individually, neither Scotland nor a reduced UK would have much in the way of pollical clout internationally.
The political “elite” of other nations would find the whole affair highly amusing. A UK that couldn’t keep its union together, and a tiny Alba, jumping up and down and squeaking for attention.
With its small population, and freshly isolated at the northern end of the British Isles, Scotland may be regarded as little more than a buzzing fly on the worlds stage.
The United Kingdom and America’s “special relationship”, is largely dependent upon NATO membership. Should the remainder of the UK find itself unable to meet its treaty obligations, this relationship would evaporate like a puddle of water on fresh lava.
The post referendum UK would need to seek an alternative military alliance. Going cap in hand to the EU would perhaps be ill advised as those worthies, in fit of political pique, would no doubt make the Brexited UK jump through hoops and dance for their entertainment before even considering resurrecting the UK’s European Union membership.
Post Scottish independence, The No Longer-United Kingdom would suffer further indignities. Northern Ireland would attain reunification with the south, and proceed to handle their religious differences with maturity and gravitas. Wales and the Duchy of Cornwall would seek their own Independence and exercise control over their own borders.
The UK would be no more. Distanced from an indifferent United States of America, bordered on the north and west by hostile nations, and on the south by a pouty-wouty, sniffy-wiffy European Union, England would find itself very much alone.
This now small business enterprise of 56 million employees, seeking its own survival, would perhaps have no choice but to abase itself before Vladimir Putin, CEO of the Russian conglomerate, and beg his munificence. England has socialist tendences so it shouldn’t be too much of a change in ideologies. A change is as good as a rest. It’s not as though it will last forever, given human proclivities.
It is, however, wildly speculative to consider that an independent Scotland and diminished United Kingdom, devoid of any particular international political or military support, could become prey to political and ideological opponents who, through martial or economic means, might have an interest in gaining a strategic foothold north of the European Union.
It’ll be fine. What could possibly go wrong?
In conclusion and to reiterate, a referendum that affects the United Kingdom as a whole, should go to the United Kingdom, as a whole. Or does that seem unreasonable?
A free Scotland, after balancing its trade deficit and adjusting public spending downwards a smidge, should be well placed to break even. But hey, EU membership notwithstanding, they’ll be independent right? Now they can do their own laundry, and order take-out whenever they want.
Who knows? With the entire United Kingdom having a say, the Scottish National Party and First Minister Nicola Sturgeon might get exactly what they want. With a national referendum on the matter of independence, Scotland will have a definitive answer either way.
So please, First Minister Sturgeon, by all means have your referendum. At least have the good grace not to complain about the results.
Thank you for your time.